- New Nintendo game releases could be a big boost to consoles sales, according to Jefferies analyst Atul Goyal.
- He found that when PlayStation releases major new games, its console sales get a boost. He says the same should happen for Nintendo.
- Goyal is the biggest Nintendo bull on Wall Street.
- Watch Nintendo trade in real time here.
Nintendo is about to splash the video-game market with some major new games — and that could mean a surge in sales of its Switch gaming console is coming.
Jefferies analyst Atul Goyal found that whenever Nintendo rival PlayStation releases major new games, its console sales spike. If Goyal's assumption that PS4 sales trends are somewhat predictive of Nintendo's is correct, its Nintendo shareholders who are set to reap the rewards.
"We look at PS4 sales trends after the first 1 year, and find that within the first 2 years, PS4 sales displayed weak trends in months 15, 22, 23 as it did not have major game launches in those months," Goyal wrote in a note out to clients. "Major game launches are what draw users to buy consoles."
Those findings are shaping up to be a boon for Nintendo shareholders, as the video-game maker has a handful of major launches coming in the months ahead:
- Mega Man 11: (October 2, 2018)
- Super Mario Party (October 5, 2018)
- Pokemon: Let's go, Pikachu! (November 16, 2018)
- Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (December 7, 2018)
Goyal also believes a tailwind from digital adoption is also on the horizon for Nintendo. "Growing Digital adoption remains the most powerful margin driver after the first 3-4 years of software sales growth," he said. "This will come from (1) greater% of digital downloads (2) growing in-game sales (3) online subscription sales (from Sep)."
And while this is something for shareholders to be excited about, it should be noted that Goyal is the biggest Nintendo bull on Wall Street. While he has been correct on predicting a big move up in shares over the past year, he has also remained bullish even as they have tumbled from their recent highs.
In early June, when shares had only slumped 10% from their highs, Goyal suggested the weakness was caused by technical factors and only temporary.
At the time, Goyal reiterated his buy recommendation. "As fundamental analysts, we look at business, competition, supply-chain, earnings, cash-flows, dividends, valuations – which are getting stronger, and we'd say BUY," he wrote. "And we do reiterate BUY."
Then, in mid-June, Goyal doubled down on his "buy" call after shares tumbled 20% in a month, pointing to the widely successful Nintendo Switch, and the outlook for its mobile business.
Goyal has an $87.21 price target, more than double the $40.49 where shares are currently trading.
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